In an evolving health landscape, emerging research continues to highlight concerns that could impact everyday wellbeing. Here’s the key update you should know about:
A global simulation study suggests that pandemic school shutdowns did more than interrupt learning, they may have widened inequality and reduced children’s chances of surpassing their parents’ education.
Key takeaways
Attainment and mobility
COVID-19 school closures were projected to lower educational attainment and weaken intergenerational educational mobility, especially in areas without remedial recovery measures.
Disadvantaged children
Children from less advantaged backgrounds were estimated to experience larger learning losses because they had less access to effective continued learning during school shutdowns.
Upward mobility
In some high- and upper-middle-income countries, the share of children attaining more education than their parents was projected to fall by about 8 to 9 percentage points.
Remote learning
Under more optimistic assumptions about the effectiveness of remote learning, inequality sometimes appeared worse because better-off children were more likely to benefit from those learning options.
Study: COVID-19 school closures, learning losses and intergenerational mobility. Image Credit: Zorro Stock Images / Shutterstock
A new study published in the journal Humanities and Social Sciences Communications finds that COVID-19-related school closures may have far-reaching, long-lasting effects on educational inequality and social mobility.
Global Learning Loss and Long-Term Social Consequences
Pandemic-related learning losses could reduce educational attainment by over a year on average globally, with the greatest impact on disadvantaged children. Unequal access to remote learning risks widening existing gaps and reversing decades of progress in educational mobility, with lasting social and economic consequences, according to simulation-based estimates.
COVID-19 has disproportionately affected lower-income populations and those with limited education or unstable employment. While short-term changes in income inequality have been modest, concerns are rising about longer-term effects driven by educational disruptions.
Unequal access to remote learning, closely tied to income and parental education, has heightened the risk of uneven human capital losses. Although economic impacts are well documented, less is known about the effects of school closures on intergenerational mobility.
Simulation-Based Study Design and Data Sources
In this study, researchers used a multi-source, simulation-based approach to assess the influence of COVID-19-related learning disruptions on long-term educational inequality and intergenerational mobility.
The team derived baseline estimates of educational attainment and mobility based on the Global Database on Intergenerational Mobility (GDIM), which spans 153 countries. They used the 1980s birth cohort as a proxy for current students.
The investigators quantified learning losses using Learning Adjusted Years of Schooling (LAYS), which integrates access to education and its quality. They performed statistical modeling using country-specific data on school closures between February 2020 and February 2022.
To capture disparities in learning experiences, the researchers incorporated World Bank phone survey datasets from 30 countries. The survey provided household-level insights into children’s engagement with various learning modalities amid school shutdowns. These included direct teacher interaction, remote learning through digital or broadcast media, and complete disengagement.
The team assigned a “loss index” to each modality to estimate differences in learning loss across socioeconomic groups, particularly by parental education level. They then translated these simulated learning losses into counterfactual years of schooling and compared scenarios with and without the pandemic.
By integrating distributional differences within countries, the team estimated shifts in both absolute and relative mobility. Absolute mobility changes reflected the likelihood that children would surpass their parents’ education. Alterations in relative mobility denoted the degree of independence from parental background.
Together, these estimates provided a globally comparable assessment of the pandemic’s long-term impacts on inequality, though the authors emphasize that they are illustrative simulations rather than forecasts. They also note that the main estimates reflect a scenario without post-pandemic learning recovery or acceleration measures.
Global Learning Loss and Mobility Decline Results
The analysis revealed considerable and non-uniform learning losses associated with COVID-19 school closures. The team found a global average decline of approximately 1.2 years of schooling. These losses were most pronounced in middle-income countries, where longer school closures contributed to sharper declines. As a result, the percentage of children expected to surpass their parents’ education could fall by eight to nine percentage points in some upper-middle- and high-income countries, effectively reversing decades of progress.
Importantly, the findings highlight stark socioeconomic disparities. Children from less educated households experienced greater losses in both absolute (1.5 vs. 1.3 years) and relative terms (23% vs. 10%). The findings reflect significant inequalities in access to effective learning amid school closures.
Data on learning engagement showed that children with more educated parents were more likely to maintain teacher interaction. In contrast, disadvantaged students were more likely to disengage entirely or rely on less effective remote modalities.
These inequalities translated into declines in mobility measured relative to parental education. Intergenerational persistence in education increased by almost 4% on average under one scenario, with much larger increases in some countries. The largest increase, approximately 19%, was observed in Mongolia.
Other countries with notable increases include Peru (13%), Mexico (9.0%), and the Philippines (8.0%). The findings suggest that within-country inequalities in access to effective learning amid school closures disproportionately affect mobility, with some countries experiencing sharper declines than the global average.
Distribution-sensitive models demonstrated that within-country disparities in learning access were a key driver of these trends. Uniform-loss assumptions underestimated the true impact. Notably, more favorable assumptions regarding remote learning effectiveness further widened mobility gaps, as disadvantaged children were less likely to benefit. The findings underscore the risk of lasting entrenchment of educational inequality in the absence of effective remedial action.
Long-Term Implications for Education and Social Mobility
The findings strongly indicate that pandemic-related learning losses could have lasting impacts on intergenerational mobility by widening existing educational inequalities. Disproportionate losses among children from lower socioeconomic backgrounds risk reinforcing cycles of disadvantage, undermining poverty reduction, and limiting long-term opportunities. Without timely intervention, these disruptions may translate into persistent human capital deficits and slower economic growth.
The study highlights the urgent need for targeted recovery measures, including catch-up learning and re-engagement strategies for vulnerable students. Strengthening the education system’s resilience and ensuring equitable access to effective learning will also be critical to mitigating future disruptions and safeguarding social mobility. Further research using longitudinal data is essential to track mobility outcomes and refine policy responses.
The authors also caution that the estimates depend on modeling assumptions, proxy cohort data, and survey-based measures of learning modality, so the exact magnitude of long-term effects remains uncertain.
Journal reference:
- Cojocaru, A., Azevedo, J. P., Narayan, A., & Montalva Talledo, V. (2026). COVID-19 school closures, learning losses and intergenerational mobility. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications. DOI: 10.1057/s41599-026-06967-w, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-026-06967-w
